New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 93

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

421.85 – 154.29

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

450 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 51.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 620.2 ±9.3

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 187.93Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 29.4Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 204.52Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.4 ±9.8

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 42.28Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 58.17Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 53.84Rank 49Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2877, 1735, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

421.9 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2877, 1735, 7407

Auto

72.7 18%

Teleop

220.4 55%

Endgame

106.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6201, 8544, 8889

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6201, 8544, 8889

Auto

43.4 28%

Teleop

62.2 40%

Endgame

49.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.81 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score421.9pts

Blue projected score154.3pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 267.6
Score range: 99–477
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 530 vs event baseline 304.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

620.2Season APEX375.4

72.7Auto43.4

220.4Teleop62.2

106.9Endgame49.2

88Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	15
teleop	284	36
endgame	69	29
foul	5	0
total	450	80

Result

Final score

450 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 51.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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