New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 92

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

220.8 – 482.17

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

196 – 559

Prediction correct · off by 50.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.6 ±10.4

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 102.88Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 82.25Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 35.67Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 731.7 ±9.3

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 131.31Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 177.12Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 173.74Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10973, 5422, 11131

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10973, 5422, 11131

Auto

52.0 24%

Teleop

98.9 46%

Endgame

66.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1153, 176, 238

/ 100 compat

Projected

482.2 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1153, 176, 238

Auto

73.7 16%

Teleop

261.3 55%

Endgame

137.6 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score220.8pts

Blue projected score482.2pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -261.4
Score range: 166–537
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 755 vs event baseline 303.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.6Season APEX731.7

52Auto73.7

98.9Teleop261.3

66.2Endgame137.6

45Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	123
teleop	118	277
endgame	62	154
foul	0	5
total	196	559

Result

Final score

196 – 559

Prediction correct · off by 50.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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