New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 91

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.37 – 346.15

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

246 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 58.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.5 ±10.4

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 11.18Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 71.54Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 58.65Rank 48Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.3 ±9.8

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 90.32Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 216.31Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 39.52Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7153, 95, 467

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7153, 95, 467

Auto

36.5 28%

Teleop

50.2 39%

Endgame

41.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1100, 88, 3323

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1100, 88, 3323

Auto

51.5 15%

Teleop

206.0 60%

Endgame

88.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score141.4pts

Blue projected score346.2pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -204.8
Score range: 86–401
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 580 vs event baseline 304.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357.5Season APEX522.3

36.5Auto51.5

50.2Teleop206

41.7Endgame88

115Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	61
teleop	135	166
endgame	37	92
foul	0	15
total	246	334

Result

Final score

246 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 58.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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