New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 90

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

341.07 – 454.27

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 190

Prediction missed · off by 205.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 514.6 ±9.4

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 128.86Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 131.96Rank 12Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 80.25Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 581.4 ±9.4

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 96.44Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 55.2Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 302.63Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 178, 190, 177

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 178, 190, 177

Auto

51.5 15%

Teleop

196.6 59%

Endgame

87.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2423, 1119, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

454.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2423, 1119, 3467

Auto

95.0 21%

Teleop

252.2 57%

Endgame

94.7 21%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score341.1pts

Blue projected score454.3pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -113.2
Score range: 286–509
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 385 vs event baseline 305.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

514.6Season APEX581.4

51.5Auto95

196.6Teleop252.2

87.3Endgame94.7

81Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	71
teleop	93	88
endgame	10	31
foul	45	0
total	195	190

Result

Final score

195 – 190

Prediction missed · off by 205.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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