New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

252.11 – 252.11

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

328 – 381

Prediction missed · off by 102.4 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 559.9 ±9.8

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 58.86Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX -Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 148Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 498.3 ±9.8

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX -Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 58.86Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 148Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 177, 166, 319

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 177, 166, 319

Auto

54.7 22%

Teleop

140.3 56%

Endgame

57.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5962, 3597, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5962, 3597, 6328

Auto

48.7 19%

Teleop

125.8 50%

Endgame

77.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score252.1pts

Blue projected score252.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 203–301
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 709 vs event baseline 271.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

559.9Season APEX498.3

41.1Auto35.1

117.7Teleop103.1

48Endgame68.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	91
teleop	159	235
endgame	100	50
foul	0	5
total	328	381

Result

Final score

328 – 381

Prediction missed · off by 102.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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