New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 87

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.02 – 75.37

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

266 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 61.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440.7 ±8.8

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 40.43Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 28.41Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 128.18Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.5 ±10.4

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 41.31Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 42.94Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX -8.88Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6201, 11131, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

197 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6201, 11131, 4909

Auto

47.6 25%

Teleop

88.7 47%

Endgame

52.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1071, 61, 3597

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1071, 61, 3597

Auto

13.2 17%

Teleop

47.8 60%

Endgame

18.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score197pts

Blue projected score75.4pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 121.7
Score range: 20–252
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 395 vs event baseline 307.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440.7Season APEX257.5

47.6Auto13.2

88.7Teleop47.8

52.5Endgame18.7

53Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	36
teleop	137	38
endgame	76	45
foul	0	10
total	266	129

Result

Final score

266 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 61.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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