New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 86

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

256.3 – 467.06

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

214 – 449

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.2 ±10.4

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 65.7Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 97.98Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 92.62Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 653.4 ±9.8

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 269.22Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 84.32Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 113.52Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8544, 839, 7674

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8544, 839, 7674

Auto

48.0 19%

Teleop

142.9 57%

Endgame

57.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6329, 5962, 8085

/ 100 compat

Projected

467.1 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6329, 5962, 8085

Auto

103.1 23%

Teleop

242.9 53%

Endgame

109.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score256.3pts

Blue projected score467.1pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -210.8
Score range: 201–522
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 663 vs event baseline 306.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.2Season APEX653.4

48Auto103.1

142.9Teleop242.9

57.7Endgame109.9

48Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	87
teleop	83	232
endgame	111	115
foul	0	15
total	214	449

Result

Final score

214 – 449

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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