New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 85

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

527.16 – 258.45

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

630 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 92.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 742.7 ±9.3

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 177.42Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 166.16Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 183.58Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.1 ±10.4

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 113.28Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 134.08Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 11.09Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2877, 238, 1699

/ 100 compat

Projected

527.2 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2877, 238, 1699

Auto

73.7 14%

Teleop

301.7 58%

Endgame

142.1 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 228, 319, 1991

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 228, 319, 1991

Auto

27.4 11%

Teleop

131.7 53%

Endgame

87.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.99 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score527.2pts

Blue projected score258.5pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 268.7
Score range: 203–582
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 806 vs event baseline 305.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

742.7Season APEX354.1

73.7Auto27.4

301.7Teleop131.7

142.1Endgame87.7

96Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	41
teleop	405	127
endgame	131	8
foul	15	0
total	630	176

Result

Final score

630 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 92.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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