New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 83

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

164.72 – 391.16

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 163

Prediction missed · off by 129.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.8 ±10.4

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 71.88Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 10.26Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 82.58Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 547.4 ±9.8

1350The Rambots

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 35.24Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 101.6Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 254.32Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 95, 1735, 5422

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 95, 1735, 5422

Auto

25.5 18%

Teleop

65.0 45%

Endgame

54.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1350, 177, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

391.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1350, 177, 6328

Auto

75.6 19%

Teleop

246.8 62%

Endgame

75.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score164.7pts

Blue projected score391.2pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -226.4
Score range: 110–446
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 305.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.8Season APEX547.4

25.5Auto75.6

65Teleop246.8

54.6Endgame75.9

84Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	27
teleop	92	76
endgame	37	60
foul	0	0
total	196	163

Result

Final score

196 – 163

Prediction missed · off by 129.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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