New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

307.34 – 390.06

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

402 – 388

Prediction missed · off by 48.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 512.9 ±9.8

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 89.91Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 134.09Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 83.34Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 605.3 ±8.8

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 135.98Rank 12Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 83.1Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 170.98Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2423, 166, 1100

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2423, 166, 1100

Auto

87.9 29%

Teleop

164.5 54%

Endgame

50.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 190, 558, 176

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 190, 558, 176

Auto

80.4 21%

Teleop

210.9 54%

Endgame

98.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.45 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score307.3pts

Blue projected score390.1pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.7
Score range: 252–445
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 790 vs event baseline 304.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

512.9Season APEX605.3

87.9Auto80.4

164.5Teleop210.9

50.7Endgame98.4

59Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	56
teleop	236	210
endgame	87	122
foul	0	0
total	402	388

Result

Final score

402 – 388

Prediction missed · off by 48.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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