New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

331.08 – 291.04

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

351 – 474

Prediction missed · off by 101.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 388.7 ±10.4

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 113.14Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 124.88Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 93.06Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 466.1 ±10.4

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 113.9Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 7.56Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 169.58Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8085, 178, 10973

/ 100 compat

Projected

331.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8085, 178, 10973

Auto

69.3 21%

Teleop

185.8 56%

Endgame

77.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 319, 11131, 1699

/ 100 compat

Projected

291 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 319, 11131, 1699

Auto

36.7 13%

Teleop

146.2 52%

Endgame

98.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score331.1pts

Blue projected score291pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40
Score range: 236–386
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 825 vs event baseline 303.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

388.7Season APEX466.1

69.3Auto36.7

185.8Teleop146.2

77.5Endgame98.6

114Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	71
teleop	181	292
endgame	108	106
foul	10	5
total	351	474

Result

Final score

351 – 474

Prediction missed · off by 101.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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