New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

373.64 – 306.71

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

471 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 114 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 675.8 ±9.3

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 155.12Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 161.76Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 56.76Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.8 ±10.4

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 34.44Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 144.46Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 127.81Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1922, 238, 8544

/ 100 compat

Projected

373.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1922, 238, 8544

Auto

41.4 11%

Teleop

199.7 54%

Endgame

127.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3182, 1153, 228

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3182, 1153, 228

Auto

44.3 15%

Teleop

184.2 64%

Endgame

61.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score373.6pts

Blue projected score306.7pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.9
Score range: 252–429
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 647 vs event baseline 303.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

675.8Season APEX342.8

41.4Auto44.3

199.7Teleop184.2

127.7Endgame61

130Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	54
teleop	256	88
endgame	96	34
foul	0	0
total	471	176

Result

Final score

471 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 114 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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