New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

252.41 – 320.59

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

331 – 496

Prediction correct · off by 127 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.8 ±9.8

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 2.46Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 73.14Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 176.81Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.4 ±8.8

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 128.34Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 110.99Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 81.26Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3566, 5962, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3566, 5962, 2877

Auto

55.3 23%

Teleop

138.0 57%

Endgame

46.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8046, 4909, 839

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8046, 4909, 839

Auto

43.1 14%

Teleop

182.7 58%

Endgame

87.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.48 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score252.4pts

Blue projected score320.6pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.2
Score range: 198–375
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 827 vs event baseline 302.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.8Season APEX540.4

55.3Auto43.1

138Teleop182.7

46.8Endgame87.2

129Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	92
teleop	157	299
endgame	113	105
foul	0	0
total	331	496

Result

Final score

331 – 496

Prediction correct · off by 127 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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