New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.89 – 405.19

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

159 – 483

Prediction correct · off by 57.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.1 ±10.4

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX -21.56Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 61.88Rank 48Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 81.57Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604.1 ±9.4

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 289.95Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 85.72Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 29.52Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3597, 467, 558

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3597, 467, 558

Auto

28.9 23%

Teleop

41.0 33%

Endgame

55.4 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3467, 10973, 11483

/ 100 compat

Projected

405.2 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3467, 10973, 11483

Auto

82.5 20%

Teleop

229.2 57%

Endgame

91.8 23%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score121.9pts

Blue projected score405.2pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -283.3
Score range: 68–459
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 642 vs event baseline 302.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.1Season APEX604.1

28.9Auto82.5

41Teleop229.2

55.4Endgame91.8

118Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	99
teleop	77	256
endgame	46	123
foul	0	5
total	159	483

Result

Final score

159 – 483

Prediction correct · off by 57.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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