New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

353.48 – 283.07

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

456 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 66.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 679.9 ±9.3

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 78.01Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 120.42Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 155.05Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 464.3 ±9.4

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 93.29Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 77.1Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 112.68Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2423, 8046, 238

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2423, 8046, 238

Auto

64.1 19%

Teleop

174.6 51%

Endgame

105.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1100, 95, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1100, 95, 4909

Auto

48.3 18%

Teleop

152.0 56%

Endgame

71.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score353.5pts

Blue projected score283.1pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.4
Score range: 229–407
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 708 vs event baseline 300.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

679.9Season APEX464.3

64.1Auto48.3

174.6Teleop152

105.3Endgame71

87Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	42
teleop	278	124
endgame	106	81
foul	20	5
total	456	252

Result

Final score

456 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 66.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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