New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

346.35 – 391.21

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

488 – 271

Prediction missed · off by 130.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 563.6 ±9.8

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 177.67Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 78.23Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 90.45Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 613.1 ±9.3

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 185.61Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 189.49Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 16.11Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7407, 8013, 177

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7407, 8013, 177

Auto

76.6 24%

Teleop

180.0 55%

Endgame

68.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 176, 2877, 7153

/ 100 compat

Projected

391.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 176, 2877, 7153

Auto

86.9 22%

Teleop

221.1 57%

Endgame

80.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.63 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score346.3pts

Blue projected score391.2pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.9
Score range: 292–445
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 759 vs event baseline 300.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

563.6Season APEX613.1

76.6Auto86.9

180Teleop221.1

68.7Endgame80.9

94Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	68
teleop	292	124
endgame	110	79
foul	10	0
total	488	271

Result

Final score

488 – 271

Prediction missed · off by 130.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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