New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

394.09 – 230.49

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

353 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 46.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 669.1 ±9.3

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 89.49Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 156.81Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 147.79Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.4 ±10.4

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 113.79Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 87.79Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 28.91Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5422, 1922, 166

/ 100 compat

Projected

394.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5422, 1922, 166

Auto

75.4 19%

Teleop

204.9 52%

Endgame

114.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 319, 7674, 1071

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 319, 7674, 1071

Auto

19.7 8%

Teleop

120.8 52%

Endgame

92.9 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.72 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score394.1pts

Blue projected score230.5pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 163.6
Score range: 176–448
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 635 vs event baseline 300.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

669.1Season APEX394.4

75.4Auto19.7

204.9Teleop120.8

114.8Endgame92.9

71Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	41
teleop	185	116
endgame	66	105
foul	5	20
total	353	282

Result

Final score

353 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 46.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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