New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

273.32 – 151.16

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

301 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 591.5 ±9.8

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 6.29Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 0.25Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 266.78Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.5 ±10.4

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 29.94Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 114.38Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 6.84Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1735, 3566, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1735, 3566, 6329

Auto

90.1 35%

Teleop

123.0 48%

Endgame

41.0 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 61, 8085, 11131

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 61, 8085, 11131

Auto

40.7 28%

Teleop

77.1 53%

Endgame

28.4 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.41 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score273.3pts

Blue projected score151.2pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.2
Score range: 97–327
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 506 vs event baseline 300.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

591.5Season APEX331.5

90.1Auto40.7

123Teleop77.1

41Endgame28.4

96Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	51
teleop	187	116
endgame	84	33
foul	0	5
total	301	205

Result

Final score

301 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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