New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

425.04 – 152.03

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

440 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 506.2 ±9.8

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 124.85Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 227.12Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 73.07Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.9 ±10.4

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 119.24Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 35.92Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX -3.13Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 228, 88, 5962

/ 100 compat

Projected

425 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 228, 88, 5962

Auto

79.0 19%

Teleop

226.3 55%

Endgame

105.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 178, 3323, 1991

/ 100 compat

Projected

152 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 178, 3323, 1991

Auto

17.2 13%

Teleop

84.5 62%

Endgame

35.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.84 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score425pts

Blue projected score152pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 273
Score range: 98–479
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 676 vs event baseline 300.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

506.2Season APEX304.9

79Auto17.2

226.3Teleop84.5

105.6Endgame35.4

97Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	24
teleop	257	132
endgame	103	80
foul	0	0
total	440	236

Result

Final score

440 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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