New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

240.7 – 367.31

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 417

Prediction correct · off by 60.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.5 ±9.4

1350The Rambots

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 48.89Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 121.97Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 69.84Rank 49Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 623.6 ±9.3

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 253.38Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 82.88Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 31.05Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1350, 4909, 8889

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1350, 4909, 8889

Auto

59.0 25%

Teleop

111.4 47%

Endgame

68.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6328, 10973, 6201

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6328, 10973, 6201

Auto

58.1 16%

Teleop

232.4 63%

Endgame

79.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score240.7pts

Blue projected score367.3pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -126.6
Score range: 187–421
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 586 vs event baseline 300.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344.5Season APEX623.6

59Auto58.1

111.4Teleop232.4

68.6Endgame79.1

112Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	106
teleop	67	199
endgame	53	112
foul	0	0
total	169	417

Result

Final score

169 – 417

Prediction correct · off by 60.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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