New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

308.88 – 395.84

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

261 – 457

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 468.5 ±10.4

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 56.74Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 172.87Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 79.27Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 534.6 ±9.4

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 73.99Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 289.25Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 32.6Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1119, 1699, 95

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1119, 1699, 95

Auto

34.2 12%

Teleop

172.3 60%

Endgame

81.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8013, 3467, 3182

/ 100 compat

Projected

395.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8013, 3467, 3182

Auto

82.3 21%

Teleop

242.5 62%

Endgame

66.5 17%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.33 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score308.9pts

Blue projected score395.8pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87
Score range: 255–450
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 718 vs event baseline 299.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

468.5Season APEX534.6

34.2Auto82.3

172.3Teleop242.5

81.2Endgame66.5

58Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	137
teleop	137	256
endgame	54	49
foul	15	15
total	261	457

Result

Final score

261 – 457

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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