New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

354.85 – 371.15

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

212 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 135.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 487.6 ±9.8

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 102.72Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 46.75Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 205.38Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 565.3 ±9.8

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 165.72Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 78.22Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 127.21Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 839, 1071, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 839, 1071, 2877

Auto

53.1 15%

Teleop

213.9 60%

Endgame

88.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 238, 4041, 319

/ 100 compat

Projected

371.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 238, 4041, 319

Auto

46.6 13%

Teleop

163.0 44%

Endgame

161.6 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score354.9pts

Blue projected score371.2pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.3
Score range: 301–425
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 455 vs event baseline 300.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

487.6Season APEX565.3

53.1Auto46.6

213.9Teleop163

88.5Endgame161.6

86Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	30
teleop	177	126
endgame	4	67
foul	0	20
total	212	243

Result

Final score

212 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 135.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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