New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

330.24 – 485.49

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

366 – 551

Prediction correct · off by 50.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 471.5 ±9.8

2648Infinite Loop

Season APEX 121.7Event APEX 94.51Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 83.13Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 152.6Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 610.1 ±9.8

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 110.04Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 259.61Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 115.84Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2648, 558, 1922

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2648, 558, 1922

Auto

50.9 15%

Teleop

197.3 59%

Endgame

84.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 178, 6329, 228

/ 100 compat

Projected

485.5 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 178, 6329, 228

Auto

111.1 23%

Teleop

279.7 59%

Endgame

85.5 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score330.2pts

Blue projected score485.5pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -155.2
Score range: 276–539
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 917 vs event baseline 300.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

471.5Season APEX610.1

50.9Auto111.1

197.3Teleop279.7

84.5Endgame85.5

149Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	102
teleop	182	291
endgame	135	133
foul	0	25
total	366	551

Result

Final score

366 – 551

Prediction correct · off by 50.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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