New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

226.57 – 270.86

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

346 – 331

Prediction missed · off by 89.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.4 ±10.4

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 141.45Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 63.39Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 21.73Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 498.1 ±9.8

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 65.23Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 181.22Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 24.41Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1153, 5962, 3323

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1153, 5962, 3323

Auto

17.0 7%

Teleop

119.1 53%

Endgame

90.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4761, 176, 61

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4761, 176, 61

Auto

44.1 16%

Teleop

158.8 58%

Endgame

71.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.5 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score226.6pts

Blue projected score270.9pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.3
Score range: 173–325
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 677 vs event baseline 299.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.4Season APEX498.1

17Auto44.1

119.1Teleop158.8

90.7Endgame71.7

142Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	65
teleop	137	202
endgame	70	64
foul	90	0
total	346	331

Result

Final score

346 – 331

Prediction missed · off by 89.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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