New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

329.29 – 120.28

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

354 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 17 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504.1 ±9.8

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 28.96Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 74.1Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 226.23Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429.7 ±9.8

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 0.96Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 34.07Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 85.25Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11483, 2423, 88

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11483, 2423, 88

Auto

77.0 23%

Teleop

183.7 55%

Endgame

71.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3566, 6201, 5422

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3566, 6201, 5422

Auto

26.6 24%

Teleop

55.8 49%

Endgame

30.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score329.3pts

Blue projected score120.3pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 209
Score range: 66–383
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 465 vs event baseline 300.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504.1Season APEX429.7

77Auto26.6

183.7Teleop55.8

71.1Endgame30.4

4Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	31
teleop	169	40
endgame	104	25
foul	0	15
total	354	111

Result

Final score

354 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 17 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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