New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

142.59 – 209.02

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

187 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433.7 ±9.8

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 7.96Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX -6.5Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 141.13Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 373.1 ±10.4

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 85.76Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 58.85Rank 49Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 64.41Rank 48Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11131, 1991, 166

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11131, 1991, 166

Auto

58.0 38%

Teleop

57.1 38%

Endgame

35.7 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 177, 8889, 467

/ 100 compat

Projected

209 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 177, 8889, 467

Auto

42.5 21%

Teleop

99.9 50%

Endgame

56.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.37 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score142.6pts

Blue projected score209pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.4
Score range: 89–263
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 301.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433.7Season APEX373.1

58Auto42.5

57.1Teleop99.9

35.7Endgame56.6

43Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	43
teleop	67	125
endgame	3	84
foul	45	0
total	187	252

Result

Final score

187 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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