New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

292.11 – 380.57

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

326 – 432

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509 ±9.8

2648Infinite Loop

Season APEX 121.7Event APEX 93.15Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 154.5Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 44.46Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 517.5 ±8.8

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 191.89Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 134.61Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 54.07Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2648, 176, 1119

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2648, 176, 1119

Auto

60.0 21%

Teleop

152.4 55%

Endgame

67.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2877, 4909, 8544

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2877, 4909, 8544

Auto

63.0 17%

Teleop

212.4 56%

Endgame

102.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.39 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score292.1pts

Blue projected score380.6pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88.5
Score range: 234–439
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 758 vs event baseline 319.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509Season APEX517.5

60Auto63

152.4Teleop212.4

67.2Endgame102.5

111Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	100
teleop	167	246
endgame	74	86
foul	0	0
total	326	432

Result

Final score

326 – 432

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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