New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

382.23 – 297.67

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

410 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 27 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 628.1 ±9.8

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 65.45Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 56.51Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 260.27Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.2 ±9.8

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 162.66Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 105.8Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 29.21Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8013, 1119, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

382.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8013, 1119, 6329

Auto

102.9 28%

Teleop

187.4 51%

Endgame

78.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 238, 839, 3182

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 238, 839, 3182

Auto

38.6 13%

Teleop

167.8 57%

Endgame

89.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.37 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score382.2pts

Blue projected score297.7pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.6
Score range: 244–436
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 734 vs event baseline 301.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

628.1Season APEX499.2

102.9Auto38.6

187.4Teleop167.8

78.7Endgame89

55Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	68
teleop	209	155
endgame	69	86
foul	30	15
total	410	324

Result

Final score

410 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 27 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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