New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

388.82 – 231.92

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

613 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 124.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 661.2 ±8.8

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 47.37Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 221.21Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 120.24Rank 12Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.6 ±10.4

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 87.66Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 23.93Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 120.33Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4041, 6328, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4041, 6328, 190

Auto

69.4 18%

Teleop

236.5 62%

Endgame

77.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 558, 61, 178

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 558, 61, 178

Auto

56.4 24%

Teleop

124.4 54%

Endgame

51.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.5 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score388.8pts

Blue projected score231.9pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 156.9
Score range: 178–443
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 821 vs event baseline 299.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

661.2Season APEX266.6

69.4Auto56.4

236.5Teleop124.4

77.4Endgame51.6

56Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	51
teleop	369	116
endgame	158	41
foul	0	0
total	613	208

Result

Final score

613 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 124.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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