New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.42 – 225.27

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

327 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 71.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 472.3 ±9.8

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 160.25Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 105.31Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 6.86Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 389.4 ±9.4

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 71.63Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 135.23Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 18.41Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1922, 228, 7153

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1922, 228, 7153

Auto

13.1 5%

Teleop

175.0 65%

Endgame

80.4 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4761, 4909, 1735

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4761, 4909, 1735

Auto

26.8 13%

Teleop

107.1 51%

Endgame

77.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score272.4pts

Blue projected score225.3pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.2
Score range: 171–326
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 463 vs event baseline 300.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

472.3Season APEX389.4

13.1Auto26.8

175Teleop107.1

80.4Endgame77.5

133Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	57
teleop	163	71
endgame	63	3
foul	15	5
total	327	136

Result

Final score

327 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 71.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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