Qualification · Qualification 55
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
385.03 – 224.32
88%12%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
323 – 333
Prediction missed · off by 85.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 527.7 ±9.8
Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 156.06Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 141.99Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 86.98Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.1 ±9.3
Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 25.38Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 7.26Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 191.68Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 166, 1153, 7674
77
/ 100 compatProjected
385 pts
~2.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 166, 1153, 7674
Auto
76.3 20%
Teleop
218.9 57%
Endgame
91.8 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 29%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6201, 3323, 2877
53
/ 100 compatProjected
224.3 pts
~0.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6201, 3323, 2877
Auto
33.2 16%
Teleop
142.8 68%
Endgame
34.4 16%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 29%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.9
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score385pts
Blue projected score224.3pts
Red win probability88%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 46%
Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 19%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 160.7
- Score range
- 170–439
- Upset likelihood
- 12%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
527.7Season APEX540.1
76.3Auto33.2
218.9Teleop142.8
91.8Endgame34.4
77Consistency139
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 63 | 41 |
| teleop | 163 | 173 |
| endgame | 87 | 119 |
| foul | 10 | 0 |
| total | 323 | 333 |
Result
Final score
323 – 333
Prediction missed · off by 85.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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