New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.75 – 342.45

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.2 ±10.4

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 21.98Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 71.57Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX -19.8Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.9 ±9.8

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 92.29Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 82.21Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 167.95Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11483, 1100, 1991

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11483, 1100, 1991

Auto

14.9 19%

Teleop

50.1 63%

Endgame

15.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10973, 2423, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

342.5 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10973, 2423, 7407

Auto

78.0 24%

Teleop

181.1 56%

Endgame

61.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score73.8pts

Blue projected score342.5pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -268.7
Score range: 20–396
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 487 vs event baseline 300.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.2Season APEX562.9

14.9Auto78

50.1Teleop181.1

15Endgame61.8

65Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	87
teleop	91	148
endgame	27	84
foul	0	25
total	143	344

Result

Final score

143 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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