New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

342.48 – 297.88

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

483 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 89.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 615.1 ±9.4

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 67.38Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 1.51Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 273.59Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 386.2 ±10.4

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 69.04Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 129.02Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2648Infinite Loop

Season APEX 121.7Event APEX 99.82Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 177, 11131, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

342.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 177, 11131, 3467

Auto

59.0 17%

Teleop

187.0 55%

Endgame

91.6 27%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8544, 319, 2648

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8544, 319, 2648

Auto

51.7 17%

Teleop

159.5 53%

Endgame

90.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score342.5pts

Blue projected score297.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.6
Score range: 244–396
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 819 vs event baseline 298.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

615.1Season APEX386.2

59Auto51.7

187Teleop159.5

91.6Endgame90.3

82Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	37
teleop	288	157
endgame	84	122
foul	10	20
total	483	336

Result

Final score

483 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 89.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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