New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

391.36 – 227.1

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

640 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 165.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 612.4 ±9.8

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 137.67Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 57.71Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 195.98Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481 ±9.8

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 45.18Rank 49Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 124.88Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 57.04Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1699, 5422, 88

/ 100 compat

Projected

391.4 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1699, 5422, 88

Auto

44.1 11%

Teleop

223.0 57%

Endgame

127.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8889, 8046, 5962

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8889, 8046, 5962

Auto

50.5 22%

Teleop

137.2 61%

Endgame

38.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.72 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score391.4pts

Blue projected score227.1pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 164.3
Score range: 174–444
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 949 vs event baseline 295.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

612.4Season APEX481

44.1Auto50.5

223Teleop137.2

127.2Endgame38.8

63Consistency139

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	63
teleop	357	109
endgame	177	127
foul	0	10
total	640	309

Result

Final score

640 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 165.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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