New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

335.81 – 205.91

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

475 – 347

Prediction correct · off by 140.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 671.3 ±9.3

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 139.34Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 140.01Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 56.46Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.1 ±10.4

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 75.66Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 7.33Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 122.92Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 166, 238, 4761

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 166, 238, 4761

Auto

79.5 23%

Teleop

146.6 42%

Endgame

121.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 558, 1735, 1153

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 558, 1735, 1153

Auto

34.4 17%

Teleop

101.4 49%

Endgame

69.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.62 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score335.8pts

Blue projected score205.9pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.9
Score range: 153–389
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 822 vs event baseline 292.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

671.3Season APEX330.1

79.5Auto34.4

146.6Teleop101.4

121.4Endgame69.7

47Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	60
teleop	262	164
endgame	107	103
foul	20	20
total	475	347

Result

Final score

475 – 347

Prediction correct · off by 140.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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