New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

204.97 – 284.1

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

272 – 331

Prediction correct · off by 57 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.1 ±10.4

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 48Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 50Rank 49Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 106.97Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 412.2 ±10.4

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 99.8Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 92.19Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 92.11Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 61, 8889, 10973

/ 100 compat

Projected

205 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 61, 8889, 10973

Auto

45.4 23%

Teleop

96.9 48%

Endgame

59.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 839, 228, 95

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 839, 228, 95

Auto

52.0 19%

Teleop

172.3 62%

Endgame

51.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.27 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score205pts

Blue projected score284.1pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.1
Score range: 147–342
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 603 vs event baseline 319.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.1Season APEX412.2

45.4Auto52

96.9Teleop172.3

59Endgame51.7

117Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	25
teleop	151	218
endgame	58	88
foul	5	0
total	272	331

Result

Final score

272 – 331

Prediction correct · off by 57 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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