New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

537.13 – 390.75

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

623 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 61.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 826.9 ±9.3

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 259.39Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 201.77Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 75.97Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.8 ±9.8

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 114.58Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 201.42Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 74.75Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6329, 6328, 2423

/ 100 compat

Projected

537.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6329, 6328, 2423

Auto

130.1 25%

Teleop

313.4 59%

Endgame

85.5 16%

Strengths

· 6329 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 228, 2877, 1119

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 228, 2877, 1119

Auto

63.4 16%

Teleop

240.8 61%

Endgame

92.8 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.7 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score537.1pts

Blue projected score390.8pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 146.4
Score range: 339–589
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 976 vs event baseline 288.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

826.9Season APEX476.8

130.1Auto63.4

313.4Teleop240.8

85.5Endgame92.8

69Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	148	57
teleop	370	178
endgame	100	68
foul	5	50
total	623	353

Result

Final score

623 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 61.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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