New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

266.14 – 183.13

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

399 – 373

Prediction correct · off by 161.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.4 ±9.4

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 133.59Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 41.84Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 90.71Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.5 ±10.4

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 38.3Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 33.6Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 111.23Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4909, 177, 7674

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4909, 177, 7674

Auto

29.9 12%

Teleop

149.3 58%

Endgame

79.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8544, 8013, 178

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8544, 8013, 178

Auto

67.1 37%

Teleop

79.9 43%

Endgame

36.7 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.32 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score266.1pts

Blue projected score183.1pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83
Score range: 132–317
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 772 vs event baseline 286.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.4Season APEX335.5

29.9Auto67.1

149.3Teleop79.9

79.4Endgame36.7

112Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	56
teleop	212	235
endgame	117	72
foul	15	10
total	399	373

Result

Final score

399 – 373

Prediction correct · off by 161.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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