New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

354.4 – 198.05

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

395 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 554.5 ±9.4

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 48.38Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 275.08Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 30.94Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.1 ±10.4

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 53.39Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 39.97Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 104.69Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5962, 3467, 61

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5962, 3467, 61

Auto

77.7 23%

Teleop

198.0 58%

Endgame

63.7 19%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3182, 11483, 8085

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3182, 11483, 8085

Auto

46.8 24%

Teleop

136.4 70%

Endgame

13.0 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.65 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score354.4pts

Blue projected score198.1pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 156.3
Score range: 147–405
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 546 vs event baseline 283.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

554.5Season APEX312.1

77.7Auto46.8

198Teleop136.4

63.7Endgame13

79Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	42
teleop	217	84
endgame	96	20
foul	0	5
total	395	151

Result

Final score

395 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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