New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.18 – 125.16

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

162 – 85

Prediction missed · off by 55 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.5 ±10.4

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX -0.43Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 52.62Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1350The Rambots

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 39.99Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.2 ±10.4

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 15.94Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 34.75Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 74.47Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1991, 5422, 1350

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1991, 5422, 1350

Auto

-0.9 0%

Teleop

45.3 47%

Endgame

52.7 54%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7153, 3597, 1100

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7153, 3597, 1100

Auto

45.8 38%

Teleop

66.8 55%

Endgame

8.2 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score92.2pts

Blue projected score125.2pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33
Score range: 40–177
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 287.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.5Season APEX291.2

-0.9Auto45.8

45.3Teleop66.8

52.7Endgame8.2

91Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	14
teleop	62	41
endgame	47	30
foul	5	0
total	162	85

Result

Final score

162 – 85

Prediction missed · off by 55 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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