New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.98 – 209.66

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

362 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 75.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 539.8 ±9.8

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 132.61Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX -22.41Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 152.78Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.3 ±10.4

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 71.71Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 83.96Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 53.99Rank 49Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 319, 3566, 176

/ 100 compat

Projected

263 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 319, 3566, 176

Auto

38.3 15%

Teleop

135.7 52%

Endgame

86.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4041, 95, 8889

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4041, 95, 8889

Auto

41.2 21%

Teleop

100.5 51%

Endgame

54.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score263pts

Blue projected score209.7pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.3
Score range: 158–315
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 520 vs event baseline 288.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

539.8Season APEX376.3

38.3Auto41.2

135.7Teleop100.5

86.7Endgame54

93Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	52
teleop	179	66
endgame	124	25
foul	0	15
total	362	158

Result

Final score

362 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 75.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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