New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

254.54 – 317.6

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

243 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 30 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.9 ±10.4

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 49.15Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 78.46Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 126.93Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 668.1 ±9.3

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 153Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 149.9Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 14.7Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 177, 558, 839

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 177, 558, 839

Auto

32.8 13%

Teleop

157.6 62%

Endgame

63.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1922, 7407, 3323

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1922, 7407, 3323

Auto

33.7 12%

Teleop

175.2 60%

Endgame

83.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.42 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score254.5pts

Blue projected score317.6pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.1
Score range: 203–370
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 609 vs event baseline 287.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.9Season APEX668.1

32.8Auto33.7

157.6Teleop175.2

63.1Endgame83.5

82Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	19
teleop	117	203
endgame	65	124
foul	0	20
total	243	366

Result

Final score

243 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 30 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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