New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

313.49 – 164.35

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

354 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 516.4 ±9.8

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 36.87Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 64.34Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 212.28Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 372.3 ±10.4

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 2.46Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 116.03Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 45.86Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1071, 1119, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1071, 1119, 6328

Auto

44.0 14%

Teleop

181.6 56%

Endgame

97.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11131, 7674, 8013

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11131, 7674, 8013

Auto

39.2 23%

Teleop

89.0 52%

Endgame

41.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.46 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score313.5pts

Blue projected score164.4pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 149.1
Score range: 112–365
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 289.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

516.4Season APEX372.3

44Auto39.2

181.6Teleop89

97.4Endgame41.5

38Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	39
teleop	210	7
endgame	64	38
foul	5	10
total	354	94

Result

Final score

354 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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