Qualification · Qualification 40
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
199.75 – 317.99
19%81%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
315 – 376
Prediction correct · off by 86.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 433 ±10.4
Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 35.45Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 135.78Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 28.52Rank 48Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 542.8 ±8.2
Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 129.75Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 123.41Rank 12Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 64.83Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5962, 1699, 467
57
/ 100 compatProjected
199.8 pts
~1.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5962, 1699, 467
Auto
46.9 24%
Teleop
101.5 51%
Endgame
49.9 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 21%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4909, 190, 2423
71
/ 100 compatProjected
318 pts
~2.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4909, 190, 2423
Auto
47.9 16%
Teleop
160.8 55%
Endgame
86.0 29%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 21%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.47
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score199.8pts
Blue projected score318pts
Red win probability19%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 60%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 26%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -118.2
- Score range
- 148–370
- Upset likelihood
- 19%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
433Season APEX542.8
46.9Auto47.9
101.5Teleop160.8
49.9Endgame86
106Consistency126
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 21 | 61 |
| teleop | 191 | 199 |
| endgame | 103 | 111 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 315 | 376 |
Result
Final score
315 – 376
Prediction correct · off by 86.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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