New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

283.13 – 244.22

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

126 – 403

Prediction missed · off by 158 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332 ±10.4

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 133.11Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 82Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 68.02Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 543.7 ±9.8

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 28Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 187.96Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 28.26Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10973, 3182, 8544

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10973, 3182, 8544

Auto

56.5 20%

Teleop

146.2 52%

Endgame

78.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5422, 2877, 4761

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5422, 2877, 4761

Auto

22.8 9%

Teleop

123.5 51%

Endgame

96.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score283.1pts

Blue projected score244.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.9
Score range: 192–335
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 529 vs event baseline 288.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332Season APEX543.7

56.5Auto22.8

146.2Teleop123.5

78.5Endgame96.2

175Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	71
teleop	84	242
endgame	8	90
foul	0	0
total	126	403

Result

Final score

126 – 403

Prediction missed · off by 158 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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