New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

294.19 – 491.88

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

312 – 597

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490.6 ±9.8

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 169.49Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 28.27Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 96.43Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 801 ±9.3

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 117.77Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 122.02Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 252.09Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 88, 3597, 95

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 88, 3597, 95

Auto

58.0 21%

Teleop

144.6 51%

Endgame

79.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 839, 176, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

491.9 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 839, 176, 6329

Auto

86.5 18%

Teleop

280.1 58%

Endgame

119.2 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score294.2pts

Blue projected score491.9pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -197.7
Score range: 243–543
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 909 vs event baseline 282.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490.6Season APEX801

58Auto86.5

144.6Teleop280.1

79.7Endgame119.2

34Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	131
teleop	164	333
endgame	83	123
foul	0	10
total	312	597

Result

Final score

312 – 597

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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