New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

309.08 – 134.32

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

336 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 501.5 ±9.8

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 45.03Rank 49Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 128.61Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 135.44Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.8 ±10.4

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 33.23Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 45.92Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1350The Rambots

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 55.17Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8889, 178, 238

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8889, 178, 238

Auto

52.1 16%

Teleop

162.1 51%

Endgame

104.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 61, 11483, 1350

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 61, 11483, 1350

Auto

40.6 31%

Teleop

76.5 59%

Endgame

13.6 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score309.1pts

Blue projected score134.3pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 174.8
Score range: 83–360
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 283.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

501.5Season APEX279.8

52.1Auto40.6

162.1Teleop76.5

104.9Endgame13.6

127Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	21
teleop	154	60
endgame	91	21
foul	0	5
total	336	107

Result

Final score

336 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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