New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.56 – 189.94

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.8 ±10.4

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 9.68Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 75.98Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX -14.1Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 456.2 ±9.8

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 125.4Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 0.88Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 63.66Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3323, 1119, 3566

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3323, 1119, 3566

Auto

19.5 38%

Teleop

3.8 7%

Endgame

27.8 54%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1699, 1735, 6201

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1699, 1735, 6201

Auto

21.1 11%

Teleop

117.9 61%

Endgame

53.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score71.6pts

Blue projected score189.9pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.4
Score range: 21–241
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 285.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.8Season APEX456.2

19.5Auto21.1

3.8Teleop117.9

27.8Endgame53.9

187Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	25
teleop	22	124
endgame	3	66
foul	5	15
total	48	230

Result

Final score

48 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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