New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

427.65 – 282.25

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

355 – 530

Prediction missed · off by 160.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.7 ±9.4

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 158.15Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 148.1Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 121.4Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 741.9 ±9.3

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 92.87Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 177.8Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 11.58Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4909, 319, 178

/ 100 compat

Projected

427.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4909, 319, 178

Auto

68.9 16%

Teleop

231.1 55%

Endgame

123.1 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 166, 6329, 11483

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 166, 6329, 11483

Auto

98.8 36%

Teleop

126.8 46%

Endgame

48.2 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.65 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score427.7pts

Blue projected score282.3pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145.4
Score range: 232–478
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 885 vs event baseline 280.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.7Season APEX741.9

68.9Auto98.8

231.1Teleop126.8

123.1Endgame48.2

146Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	153
teleop	176	288
endgame	125	89
foul	0	0
total	355	530

Result

Final score

355 – 530

Prediction missed · off by 160.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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