New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

262.99 – 313.9

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

206 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 522.2 ±9.8

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 93.94Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 167.92Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 1.13Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.1 ±10.4

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 185.25Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 111.96Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 16.69Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5422, 238, 3597

/ 100 compat

Projected

263 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5422, 238, 3597

Auto

47.9 17%

Teleop

135.5 48%

Endgame

97.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1699, 178, 3566

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1699, 178, 3566

Auto

46.9 16%

Teleop

179.9 60%

Endgame

73.8 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.36 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score263pts

Blue projected score313.9pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.9
Score range: 205–372
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 465 vs event baseline 319.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

522.2Season APEX401.1

47.9Auto46.9

135.5Teleop179.9

97.3Endgame73.8

49Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	54
teleop	65	152
endgame	101	53
foul	0	0
total	206	259

Result

Final score

206 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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